Welcome to election year, date to be determined: Chris Hall

Hold your breath. Or rather, don't. Even though we're now officially into an election year, the prime minister insists he has no plans to go to the polls before the fixed election date of Oct. 19, 2015.

"I can honestly tell you we've had no discussion at any level of changing the date," he told the CBC's Peter Mansbridge in an interview before Christmas. "I don't know where that's coming from."

Well, for starters, it comes from experience. Prime ministers go to the polls when the timing looks best, the country's new fixed-date election law be damned.

And then there are those events already on the 2015 calendar, like the spring budget with its promised surplus and the scheduled April trial of suspended Conservative Senator Mike Duffy.

The early part of this new year offers plenty of fodder for the argument that waiting until fall may not be in Harper's, or the Conservatives', best interests.

Throw in bottom-barrel oil prices, a wave of announced spending cuts by Husky, Chevron, Petronas and other large players in the energy sector, and you get the picture.

Better to seize your moment than be crushed by economic problems beyond your control.

The opposition certainly isn't buying the prime minister's claims.

"We're obviously fully into the election cycle now,'' says NDP finance critic Nathan Cullen.

NDP's Thomas Mulcair sits with Roughrider fans during the first half of the CFL game between Saskatchewan and Edmonton in Regina on Nov. 8. What will he be doing in a year's time? (Reuters)

His party has already begun staking policy claims, among them a pledge to raise the minimum wage for federal workers and an ambitious national child-care program.

Cullen says New Democrats will continue to put flesh on the bones of their platform in the months ahead.

"I believe we're in a three-way race going into 2015," he says. "I think across this country, depending on which region you're in, the race looks a little different. But boy-oh-boy, 2015 is going to be an exciting year."

Money matters

For the Conservatives, the pre-election narrative will go something like this.

First: focus on the accomplishment of the past four years of majority government.

In this, look for the focus to be on economic management, the completion of trade deals and Harper's emergence on the international scene, whether it's talking tough to Russia's President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine, or winning plaudits for driving the UN's maternal and child-health initiative in developing countries.

Second, tell Canadians what you intend to do for them in the next four years.

On both fronts, the Conservatives have one big thing going in their favour. Money. Lots of campaign money.

The Conservatives have raised far more than either of their main opponents, and that is money the party can freely spend on all manner of political advertising before an election is called.

"If I'm the prime minister that's a significant advantage," a Liberal strategist says. "We've closed the gap. But with no spending limits pre-writ, the Conservatives have the money to promote their agenda.''

And it's not just the party's bank roll that's in play.

The Conservatives haven't been at all shy about using government resources to promote their legislative initiatives, the most recent being the ad barrage around the fall economic update, which brought in income-splitting for families with children, and enhanced the universal child-care benefit.

In both cases, voters won't see the results until later this year.

The middle class

New Democrats are busy constructing their own narrative about the Conservative's record over nine years in office — a record they argue includes the Senate scandal, election fraud and a total disregard for the environment.

For the Liberals, the focus will be on the youthful appeal of party leader Justin Trudeau, and the central theme that Harper's priorities do not reflect or reward middle-class Canadians.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau has been leading in the polls for most of this past year. But what will an election year bring? (REUTERS)

The Liberals maintain that the Conservatives' income-splitting plan rewards wealthy Canadians more than it does those in real need.

Both opposition parties insist most families will see little if any savings from the so-called family tax cut.

The goal is to debunk the Conservatives' message that only a re-elected Harper government can be trusted to manage the country's finances.

"I think the opposition has to get going if they want to counter the spin that the Conservatives are the best economic managers around,'' says David McLaughlin, a former Conservative chief of staff and campaign strategist.

Scraping the barrel

That's not to say the Conservative don't have challenges of their own, particularly with the price of oil now sitting at roughly $30-a-barrel less than what the government forecast.

Finance Minister Joe Oliver needs to produce a surplus when he tables his first budget this spring, if only to give the prime minister an option should he decide an October election is too far away.

But both opposition parties have their own problems as well, heading into 2015.

The New Democrats are mired in third in nearly every public opinion poll, and former caucus chair Glenn Thibeault bolted to run for the Ontario Liberals just before Christmas, saying it was where he could best serve his Sudbury constituents.

As for the Liberals, Trudeau has yet to lay out a policy agenda. And there has been significant confusion over some of the positions he has taken, such as on sending fighter jets to Iraq and announcing that all of his candidates must be pro-choice.

It all makes for an interesting lead-up to this election year.

So, hold your breath, or don't. Circle Oct. 19 on your calendar.

But you might want to do it in pencil.

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Dalhousie suspends 13 dentistry students from clinic amid Facebook scandal

Thirteen Dalhousie University dentistry students who belonged to a controversial Facebook group have been temporarily suspended from clinical activities, pending consideration by the faculty of dentistry's academic standards class committee.

The announcement by the Halifax university was made today as it reopened following the holiday break.

Many people are upset over the university's handling of the Facebook page by the Class of DDS 2015 Gentlemen's Club. The fourth-year male dentistry students' violent sexual comments about female classmates included a poll about having "hate" sex with female students and drugging women.

"The faculty of dentistry's academic class standards committee's ... powers include the authority to create remediation plans where warranted, and to recommend academic dismissal," said a statement released by Dalhousie president Richard Florizone and Dr. Thomas Boran, dean of the faculty. 

"The committee will assess the situation of each individual and ensure that any individual recommended for graduation will have complied with the professionalism requirements of the academic program. No student will be permitted to graduate unless they have done so."

The controversy focuses on the posting of misogynistic and degrading comments about women on a Facebook group page by some fourth-year dentistry students.

The university said while most students return to school today, the fourth-year Dalhousie dentistry students won't be back until Jan. 12.

Controversy continues to swirl around the Class of DDS 2015 Gentlemen Facebook page, where some fourth-year male dentistry students at Dalhousie University in Halifax posted violent sexual comments about female classmates. (CBC)

The suspensions were announced in a news release Monday, but the decision to suspend the students from clinical practice was made Dec. 22.

According the the release, decisions about when December's cancelled fourth-year exams will be rescheduled will be made this week.

Four Dalhousie faculty members, including a Canada research chair in bioethics, have called for the school to launch an independent inquiry into sexualized violence on campus in the wake of the dentistry school scandal.

In a statement posted online, the professors say sexualized violence is a problem at universities across the country.

They urge Dalhousie to respond by looking at both the specific harm caused by the Facebook posts, and addressing underlying causes.

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Get ready for interest rate shock in 2015

2015 is expected to be the first time in five years that benchmark interest rates are moved upwards, increasing the cost of borrowing. The U.S. Federal Reserve will go first; the Bank of Canada is expected to follow.

Most analysts expect the Fed to increase its key rate, which has been near zero for six years, by a quarter of a percentage point in the spring. Then, unless there is an unexpected shock to the U.S. economy, it will likely boost it gradually throughout the year, though the top rate is still expected to be a modest 1.25 to 1.50 per cent by the end of the year.

Canada will almost certainly follow, though with a time lag, depending on the state of the economy here.

Whenever it happens will be a shock to people carrying consumer debt, says Lynnette Purda, an associate professor at the Queen's School of Business.

The interest rates on consumer loans, lines of credit, variable rate mortgages and some auto loans could rise immediately. For Canadians carrying consumer debt that will mean higher payments.  

"Despite the low interest rates we've had for years, no one seems to have worked away at their debt levels. It will be a wake-up call for many consumers," Purda told CBC News.

Consumers could pull back

Purda expects Canadians will pull back on big ticket purchases, like cars, appliances and furniture as interest rates rise.

And the biggest ticket purchase of all, housing, will not be unscathed. Overheated markets will finally cool and we may finally see the "soft landing" long predicted by the Bank of Canada and economists.

The timing of the interest rate increase – which has been predicted in past years without materializing – is no sure thing.

Although the U.S. Fed at its last rate announcement indicated it was most likely to move in the second quarter of 2015, much depends on economic indicators. Low oil prices have given a boost to the U.S. economy and left more money in people's pockets, so there is a possibility the Fed could move even sooner.

TD Bank is predicting the Bank of Canada won't move at the same time as the U.S. even though Canadian rates usually track what is happening in the U.S.

According to TD economist Leslie Preston, the rise may not happen here until the third quarter.

"We expect Canada to raise interest rates in October of 2015 – we expect two [quarter of a percentage] point interest rate hikes in the fourth quarter of 2015, so by the end of 2015, the overnight rate would be at 1.5 per cent – it's currently at one per cent," she told CBC News.

The challenge for Stephen Poloz

For Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, this will be the first time he's wielded one of the key tools in a central banker's arsenal – the overnight interest rate which is the rate the central bank uses to lend to financial institutions.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz could delay raising rates in Canada until later in the year. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

And he'll have to weigh inflation that currently seems quite high against the potential economic impact of higher rates.

The labour market is not yet operating near capacity, with many people still unemployed or underemployed, Preston said. And falling oil prices may slow capital spending and hiring, both in the oil patch and in sectors that supply it, such as equipment manufacturing.

"One of the challenges that emerged most recently are lower oil prices. Canada is a net oil exporter so when prices go down, it affects growth in Canada. This is a new headwind that's come up," Preston said.

While those factors may slow the Bank of Canada's decision to raise rates, bond yields could rise in anticipation of a rate hike and that would affect fixed mortgage rates, according to RBC chief economist Craig Wright.

Wright said the rise in bond yields could catch people by surprise, as it may precede the Fed's move on rates. Those who are looking to renew a mortgage in 2015 should watch what the banks do with their fixed mortgage rates, he said.

Renewing a mortgage? Lock in early

"What you tend to see is people anticipate a rise in mortgage rates and lock in," he said, adding that only about 20 per cent of mortgage holders renew each year, so relatively few people will be affected.

'The other side of higher interest rates is it would make life a little easier for a lot of pension funds or savers – the saving side of the economy has been struggling to get returns'- TD Bank economist Leslie Preston

Wright warns that people with credit card debt, auto loans and lines of credits are "vulnerable" to a rate hike, especially if they have high levels of debt.

But he is upbeat about prospects for the Canadian economy, saying it is likely to continue improving, with new jobs emerging in the manufacturing sector because of the lower dollar and growing exports. People who are employed are less likely to get in trouble amid rising rates, he says.

He believes Canadian companies will shrug off an interest rate hike and keep investing.

"Companies have a lot of cash to work with. As the economy improves we will be looking for them to build their businesses," Wright said.

Wright sees the Canadian dollar headed lower next year, possibly below 84 cents US. That makes Canadian exports more competitive.

Upside of higher rates

"Higher rates have an important upside. If they are low for too long, we see bubbles appearing," Wright said.

He points to the housing market as an example with certain markets overheated because rates are low. Higher rates should help correct any bubble in housing markets, he said.

An interest rate hike could also temper inflation, which is pushing the Bank of Canada's two per cent target despite lower oil prices.

Preston also sees an upside for savers who want a safe haven for their money.

'"The other side of higher interest rates is it would make life a little easier for a lot of pension funds or savers – the saving side of the economy has been struggling to get returns in a low-interest rate environment," she said. 

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Winter brings roller-coaster temperatures, freezing rain and bitter cold

It's winter weather full-on across Canada today with the return to work and school after the New Year's holiday weekend.

Atlantic Canada

Atlantic Canada, which took the worst of it Sunday, got warmer Monday, but faced more slushy snow, with winds gusting to 60 km/h, making driving hazardous in Newfoundland. CBC reported many school closings.

This truck slid off a ramp on the Outer Ring Road in St. John's early Monday, as slushy snow made streets and highways hazardous. (Twitter)

There was a dramatic swing from the freezing temperatures that sent chills throughout much of Newfoundland in recent days.

Strong southwesterly winds gusting to 100 km/h were forecast to develop over most of coastal Newfoundland through the day and into Monday night. Forecasters are warning that loose objects could be tossed about by the winds.

In Halifax today, people outside enjoyed the respite of above-freezing temperatures, but it wasn't expected to last. The Weather Network was forecasting a low Monday night of –14 C, followed by a high of –12 C on Tuesday, with clear skies.

Ontario-Quebec

Southern Ontario and Quebec were the targets of frigid temperatures moving west from the prairie provinces, turning Toronto's rainy Sunday into snow overnight, and on Monday morning causing fender-benders and minor accidents.

In Montreal, what the Weather Network called "roller-coaster temperatures" landed freezing rain on top of snow Sunday, icing streets. Monday has brought snow flurries and a temperature of –12 C, expected to fall to –20 C tonight.

Slick roads overnight across metropolitan Toronto led to plenty of accidents overnight. This one took place near Main Street South and Clarence Street in Brampton. (Tony Smyth/CBC)

The freezing rain felled power lines across Quebec through the weekend. At the height of the power outages, more than 150,000 Quebecers were without electricity. By Monday morning, only a few thousand homes and business remained without power.

Monday was also the anniversary of the start of the 1998 ice storm. It poured freezing rain onto southern Ontario and Quebec for more than 80 hours, almost double the normal precipitation, according to Environment Canada.

"The storm claimed as many as 35 lives and brought down millions of trees, 1,000 transmission towers, 30,000 utility poles, and enough wires and cables to stretch around the world three times," Environment Canada said.

Western Canada

In Western Canada, snowbound Winnipeggers were looking forward to a high of –21 C today after even colder weather Sunday, CBC's Chris Glover reported. The current wind chill was –41 C.

That cold extended west across sunny Saskatchewan and Alberta, with –30 C forecast as the low for Saskatoon Monday night, the Weather Network reported.  

In Vancouver, heavy rain was forecast to continue Monday, with a high of 6 C.

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Cheap oil could be good for Canada, Royal Bank says

Perhaps an era of cheap crude won't be so bad for Canada after all.

A new bank forecast argues the financial blows of low oil prices on the Canadian economy could be more than cancelled out by the weaker loonie and additional consumer spending on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border.

The prediction, contained in a Royal Bank of Canada report released Monday, is an outlier among many expert assessments that have projected low crude prices to be a net negative for Canada.

The bank analysis pointed to a combined effect of three "offsetting positive outcomes" from low-priced crude: a boost for the U.S. economy; the lower Canadian dollar's benefit to exporters selling to the stronger U.S. market, and more spending by Canadians thanks to cheaper fuel.

The paper's authors, however, are careful to underscore a key risk to the projection: cuts to business investment in Canada's important oil and gas sector.

They warned reductions to oil-production investment are "more certain to occur" than the positive, counteracting forces of lower-priced crude.

"Will consumers spend the savings realized at the gas pumps? Will Canadian exporters more aggressively seek out markets for their goods benefiting from the strengthening U.S. economy and a weaker Canadian dollar?" authors of the RBC Economics report ask.

"Our current Canadian forecast assumes that both consumers and exporters will respond to these incentives that will slightly more than offset the expected weakening in oil-sector investment."

RBC based its prediction on an assumed average price of US$65 per barrel in 2015 and US$74 in 2016.

Last week, crude hit a five-year low when it slipped below US$53 per barrel, a steep drop from its US$107 perch in June.

That rapid drop in oil prices has been creating concern in some parts of Canada, as it threatens the bottom lines for oil-producing provinces as well as the federal government.

In November, Ottawa's fall economic update warned cheaper crude could drain $500 million from federal coffers in 2014 and $2.5 billion per year between 2015 to 2019. It also said it could slash Canada's nominal gross domestic product by $3 billion in 2014 and $16 billion annually from 2015 to 2019.

Last month, federal Finance Minister Joe Oliver said his department was keeping a close watch on the shifting prices, but insisted Ottawa would still attain its long-promised budgetary surplus in 2015-16.

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz has also examined the potential oil-price fallout, cautioning it could slow the pace of the country's GDP growth by a third of a percentage point.

The RBC report said lower oil prices will have significant impacts on government budgets in oil-producing provinces.

But it argues these provinces — Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador — have seen big increases in revenues from price increases in recent years, putting them on relatively strong footing to absorb the shocks of a prolonged decline.

Other provinces, meanwhile, are seeing benefits from the low crude prices in the form of cheap gasoline and the falling loonie, which is creating a better climate for their manufacturers and exporters.

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Dalhousie professors go public with Facebook scandal complaint

Four Dalhousie University professors who filed a formal complaint Dec. 22 about the sexually abusive postings of a male Facebook group are now releasing their complaint publicly.

Professors Francoise Baylis, Jocelyn Downie, Brian Noble and Jacqueline Warwick allege several of the Facebook comments amount to threats of sexual assault and acts of sexual harassment.

In a statement, the professors said the events "create a complex situation demanding thoughtful, sensitive responses from a variety of perspectives using a variety of procedural tools."

The complaint urges the university to suspend students who actively participated in any of the offensive posts on the 2015 DDS Gentlemen's Club Facebook group.

The professors say the purpose "was to trigger an interim suspension prior to the start of classes" on Monday.

The professors say that action is warranted under the university's Code of Student Conduct to ensure the safety of students and staff in the fourth year program as well as patients at its dentistry clinics.

'Unexplained delays'

The professors say they initiated the complaint so that no student would have to come forward publicly, and as an addition to the restorative justice process chosen by the university. 

The professors say they came forward because there have been "unexplained delays" in processing the complaint.

"In the event that these delays are attributable in any way to the condition of confidentiality, and in an effort to expedite a decision before January 5, 2015, we release our names now."

In an email to CBC News, Dalhousie's director of communications Brian Leadbetter responded to the professors' decision to go public with their complaint.

"In December, we advised that Dalhousie will have our preliminary assessment of the formal complaint filed on December 22 completed in early January. We fully expect to share that update this week."

The dentistry faculty at Dalhousie came under fire after CBC News received screenshots of sexually explicit posts on the Class of DDS 2015 Gentlemen Facebook page.

In one of the posts, male students in the group voted on which woman they'd like to have "hate sex" with and joked about using chloroform on women.

Some people are upset about the restorative justice process that has been chosen, instead calling for harsher penalties for those alleged to have made the comments.

Read the complaint

Faculty members' complaint (PDF)
Faculty members' complaint (Text)

Read the professors' statement

Statement from faculty members (PDF)
Statement from faculty members (Text)

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Dogs found frozen solid brought to Saskatchewan animal shelter

Warning: This story contains images and content that some people may find disturbing. 

An SPCA in Saskatchewan is hoping to learn what happened to two dogs that were discovered frozen solid inside a garbage bag on Saturday. 

The Prince Albert SPCA says a woman called the animal shelter after she found a garbage bag on Davis Road with two paws protruding from it. 

The woman opened the bag and discovered the frozen remains of the two dogs.

Ariane Gervais, an animal care attendant at the SPCA, said the woman who discovered the dogs was very shaken up, but they persuaded her to bring them in. 

"They were completely frozen, so we couldn't really check them out properly," Gervais told CBC News Saturday afternoon. "There was blood on them — obviously there was injuries —  but we're not exactly sure what happened."

'It's gross what people are capable of.'- Ariane Gervais, SPCA animal care attendant

One dog, a female, is larger in size and mostly black with some white on her chest.

The other dog, a brown and black male, had a large, bloody head wound. The shelter believes both dogs were young, possibly puppies, but because of their condition care workers were not able to check their teeth. 

"It's disgusting," Gervais said of the condition of the dogs. "You never get used to that kind of stuff. It's gross what people are capable of."

Gervais said the dogs were not micro-chipped, and there were no matches in the shelter's records of missing pets, so the shelter is looking for the owners. They also hope anyone with any information on the incident will come forward. 

As for the dogs, the SPCA plans to cremate them and spread their ashes in the spring. 

"[It will] give them a good, nice ending," Gervais said.

Warning: graphic photo 

One of the two dogs a woman brought in to the SPCA after she found them frozen in a garbage bag outside Prince Albert, Sask., on Saturday. The shelter hopes to learn the identity of the owners. (Prince Albert SPCA/Facebook)

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Political courtroom showdowns scheduled in 2015

The political dramas that unfolded in courtrooms last year may be just the warm-up for a new year that will see former Conservative senator Mike Duffy on trial.

In 2014, Michael Sona was convicted of making illegal robocalls that sent voters in Guelph, Ont., to the wrong polling station for the May 2, 2011, federal election. And former Conservative MP Dean Del Mastro was found guilty of overspending on his 2008 campaign and faking paperwork to cover it up.

While those cases will continue in 2015, the coming year will also see a new batch of trials and investigations of politicians and political staffers.

Mike Duffy

The former Conservative senator and broadcaster will go to trial in April 2015 on charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust. The court has blocked off eight weeks to deal with the case, which is bound to be covered extensively given Duffy's status as a household name and the bombshell allegations he's levelled against the Conservative Party. He'll also be the first to go to trial out of a group of four senators whose expenses have been questioned (one of the senators, Pamela Wallin, hasn't been charged in the expenses scandal).

None of the allegations have been tested in court.

Patrick Brazeau

The troubled senator, who was named to the Upper Chamber by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, will be in court starting June 1 for his preliminary inquiry. The court has set aside 12 days that month to deal with the proceeding that allows a judge to test the allegations and evidence before going to a full trial. Brazeau will be the second senator to go to trial among the group who are accused of claiming expenses to which they weren't entitled.

Brazeau also faces unrelated charges across the river from Ottawa in Gatineau, Que. He'll be in court there March 23-25.

None of the allegations have been tested in court.

Manon Perreault

Quebec MP Manon Perreault, who's now suspended from the NDP, appears on Parliament Hill in September 2011. ( Fred Chartrand/Canadian Press)

The former New Democrat MP was kicked out of caucus after being charged with falsely accusing someone of theft and misleading police. Court records released earlier this month show she's also being investigated for fraud against the government and breach of trust. The RCMP obtained a production order for the House of Commons and a search warrant for her Mascouche, Que., riding office. The Mounties sought copies of Perreault's expenses and any documents regarding her brother's hiring in her office, as well as copies of his expenses. 

Perreault has had court appearances regarding the charges of making a false allegation and misleading police.

No fraud or breach of trust charges have been filed. 

None of the allegations have been tested in court.

​Mac Harb

The retired Liberal-appointed senator will be in court Aug. 10 to Sept. 4 to defend against charges of fraud and breach of trust. Harb paid back $231,000 in expenses and stepped down from the Senate about three months before his former colleagues voted to suspend Brazeau, Duffy and Wallin. Harb says he did nothing wrong and argued most senators filed the same type of expenses. Brazeau, Duffy and Harb are accused of claiming a housing allowance meant to allow senators who live outside the capital to cover their Ottawa-area living expenses.

The allegations have not been tested in court.

Bruce Carson

Carson was once a senior adviser to Prime Minister Stephen Harper and wrote a book about the Conservative movement, including his time in the PMO. After leaving government, Carson helped start a school of energy at the University of Calgary and worked with a water purification company. He now faces charges of influence peddling related to his work with both organizations. 

Carson's trial on the charge related to the water purification company starts Sept. 8. A date for the charges related to the school of energy is likely to be decided in February.

None of the allegations have been tested in court.

Michael Sona

​Sona was sentenced to nine months in jail, but has been released on bail pending an appeal. While he's laying the groundwork to appeal the sentence, the Crown has already filed its motion to appeal the sentence too. There's no court date yet for the appeal hearing, but it's possible it could happen next fall.

Dean Del Mastro

The man elected three times as a Conservative MP resigned his seat hours before the House was to vote on whether to suspend him after he was found guilty of three charges related to his 2008 campaign. Del Mastro's sentencing hearing is scheduled for Jan. 27, although he said he would move to reopen the defence. He changed lawyers following that announcement and it's not clear whether he will follow through on that motion.

David Del Mastro

​Del Mastro's cousin also faces charges stemming from the 2008 federal campaign. The Crown alleges David Del Mastro, with the assistance of an employee, funnelled an additional $22,000 in donations to Dean Del Mastro's campaign. The case is working its way through the court with no trial date set.

The allegations have not been tested in court.

Investigation to watch: Pamela Wallin

Court documents show that RCMP were investigating suspended senator Pamela Wallin, but no charges have been laid. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

It's been more than a year since court documents confirmed the RCMP were investigating former Conservative senator Pamela Wallin for fraud and breach of trust, and little more information has been available since then. Wallin hasn't been charged, and none of the allegations have been tested in court.

In a related high-profile case, the RCMP confirmed that its probe into Nigel Wright, Harper's former chief of staff, had ended without charges. It's likely the Mounties would do the same if they ended the investigation into Wallin.

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Prayers held as divers thwarted from AirAsia site

Around 100 family members of AirAsia Flight QZ8501 crash victims sought strength in prayer Sunday, one week after the disaster, while bad weather again prevented searchers from reaching a large object on the ocean floor that is believed to be the fuselage.

Emotionally exhausted relatives sang and cried at a tiny chapel in Surabaya, the city where the plane departed from last Sunday with 162 crew members and passengers. The Rev. Philip Mantofa, who heads the congregation at the city's Mawar Sharon Church — where more than a quarter of the crash victims were members — urged those gathered to find comfort in their faith while embracing the reality that no one survived the disaster.

"If God has called your child, allow me to say this: Your child is not to be pitied," Mantofa told one Indonesian man seated in the front row. "Your child is already in God's arms. One day, your family will be reunited in heaven."

It is not clear what caused the Singapore-bound plane to crash into the Java Sea 42 minutes after taking off on what was supposed to be a two-hour flight. Minutes before losing contact, the pilot told air traffic control that he was approaching threatening clouds, but was denied permission to climb to a higher altitude because of heavy air traffic.

31 bodies found so far

Despite an intensive international search-and-recovery operation, only 31 bodies have been found so far, in large part because of bad weather. But after detecting what appears to be a massive part of the fuselage on Saturday, officials said it was possible that many passengers and crew will be found inside the wreckage.

A Russian search and rescue (SAR) team loads their equipment after arriving on a Beriev Be-200 amphibious plane to support the search for Indonesia AirAsia flight QZ8501. (Darren Whiteside/Reuters)

Divers waited for breaks in the weather Sunday to reach the site, but rolling seas stirred up silt and mud, leaving them with zero visibility, said Henry Bambang Soelistyo, chief of Indonesia's National Search and Rescue Agency. They were forced to turn back because conditions were so bad.

"At this moment, it's impossible to send any divers," he said. "We'll wait until the weather gets better."

Twenty planes and helicopters were deployed Sunday together with 27 ships from Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and the United States. All were desperately searching for any sign of the all-important black boxes and pieces of the Airbus A320.

5 large objects found

The investigation got a huge boost this weekend when sonar equipment identified five large objects on the seabed in the search area, but no images have been captured confirming they are part of the AirAsia plane.

The biggest piece of debris, measuring 18 metres long and 5.4 metres wide, appeared to be part of the fuselage, Soelistyo said. Four other chunks were found in the same area, including one detected on Sunday.

Indonesian military personnel stand guard as a military aircraft carrying caskets containing the remains of passengers on board AirAsia flight QZ8501 arrive in Surabaya. (Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters)

Suspected plane parts also were seen scattered on beaches during an aerial survey.

Indonesian authorities have announced the grounding of AirAsia flights from Surabaya to Singapore, with the Transport Ministry saying the airline did not have a permit to fly on Sundays. However, Singapore's Civil Aviation Authority said Saturday that from its end, the airline had been approved to fly the route daily.

AirAsia, which began operations in 2001 and quickly became one of the region's most popular low-cost carriers, said it was reviewing the suspension. The crash was the airline's first.

While Indonesia is predominantly Muslim, many of the passengers were Christians of Chinese descent. Mantofa's congregation was hit particularly hard, with more than a quarter of the victims — coming from 13 families — belonging to his large Pentecostal church.

Following Sunday's chapel service, Edo Anggradinata, 52, said he was finally starting to let go of the hope that his sister and her two children had survived.

"My mind is still in a daze," he said. "If there is a miracle, I hope they are alive, but I know this is tough. I just pray that we find their bodies."

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7-year-old plane crash survivor 'fell out of the sky'

When the small plane crashed into the woods, seven-year-old Sailor Gutzler called out to her family. No one responded.

She thought they might be knocked out, or possibly dead. Either way, police said, she knew she needed to get help.

So, bleeding and alone, Sailor, dressed in a short-sleeve shirt, shorts and one sock, walked more than a kilometre in near-freezing temperatures through thick brier patches and woods before she found Larry Wilkins's home. She knocked on the door, and he answered to find a thin, black-haired girl, whimpering and trembling.

"She literally fell out of the sky into a dark hole and didn't have anybody but her own will to live and get help for her family," Kentucky Police Lt. Brent White said. "Absolutely amazing."

'One sock, no shoes'

Wilkins said the girl had a "bloody nose, bloody arms, bloody legs, one sock, no shoes, crying."

"She told me that her mom and dad were dead, and she had been in a plane crash, and the plane was upside down," Wilkins said.

Federal Aviation Administration officials arrived at the crash scene Saturday to try to determine why the small Piper PA-34 crashed on Friday evening, killing four people, including the girl's parents, Marty Gutzler, 48, and his wife, Kimberly Gutzler, 46, authorities said.

Four people were killed when a small Piper PA-34 crashed near Kentucky Lake, a popular tourist attraction in the southwestern part of the state. (CBC)

Also killed were Sailor's sister Piper Gutzler, 9; and cousin Sierra Wilder, 14. All were from Nashville, Illinois.

The plane reported engine trouble and lost contact with air traffic controllers around 5:55 p.m. local time, authorities said. Controllers tried to direct the pilot to an airport about 10 km from the crash scene.

About 40 minutes later, 911 dispatchers received a call from Wilkins.

Wilkins said he brought the girl inside, got a washcloth and "washed her little face off and her legs."

"Brave little girl, outstanding little girl," he said. "I feel real bad for her."

The girl had a broken wrist, but was coherent and calm when interviewed by authorities, White said.

White and Wilkins both described the terrain she walked through as heavily wooded with thick brush. White said the girl traversed two embankments, a hill and a creek bed. Wilkins said the temperatures were near 0 C when the girl showed up at his door.

The girl was treated at a hospital and released to a relative, police said.

In Nashville, a man stepped outside the family's white, split-level home on Saturday and politely waved off a reporter.

"Not now," he said, his head lowered, before he stepped back inside.

Neighbours said Marty and Kim Gutzler had lifelong roots in the largely rural southern Illinois town about 80 kilometres east of St. Louis.

Ran furniture store

Marty ran the furniture store that his father started, and the couple was well-known and well-liked, said neighbour Carla Povolish.

With two basketball hoops in the driveway, the Gutzlers's home was the centre of neighbourhood fun on a block full of children.

"All the kids in the neighbourhood are just so upset about this," she said.

Marty Gutzler, 48, and Kimberly Gutzler, 46, along with their nine-year-old Piper Gutzler and her 14-year-old cousin Sierra Wilder, were killed in a plane crash in Kentucky. (Facebook)

Povolish said the two sisters — Sailor and Piper — were together constantly.

"That's what's going to be so devastating for the little one," she said.

The FAA said late Friday that the plane had taken off from Tallahassee Regional Airport, Fla.,, and was bound for Mount Vernon, Illinois. Sailor told police the family had been to Key West, Fla.

Attorney Kent Plotner, who was serving as family spokesman, said the Gutzler family was devastated.

"We ask that you respect our privacy at this difficult time. Please pray for us, especially for Sailor Gutzler," the family said in a statement.

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