The process of selecting the next pope will soon be underway in Vatican City, where 115 eligible cardinals are set to decide who will become the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church.
The papal election process, or conclave, is set to begin at 4:30 p.m. (11:30 a.m. ET), when the assembled cardinals will stage a procession into the Sistine Chapel, where they will chant the Litany of Saints — asking the saints to help them pick a new pope — and take an oath of secrecy.
In that oath, the cardinals will swear to follow the selection procedure laid out by Pope John Paul II in 1996, to affirm they will be loyal and receptive to the winner, and to maintain secrecy during and after the conclave, said Father Darren Dias, an assistant professor of theology at the University of Saint Michael's College in Toronto.
The oath will be followed by a meditation delivered by elderly Maltese Cardinal Prosper Grech.
Then the master of papal liturgical ceremonies will give the order extra omnes — "everyone out" — and all but those taking part in the conclave leave the chapel's frescoed walls.
The cardinals are expected to vote just once on the first day of the conclave, and result from that initial vote is expected around 8 p.m. local time (3 p.m. ET) on Tuesday.
Appeal for unity
The day began with the dean of the College of Cardinals, Angelo Sodano, leading the celebration of the Pro eligendo Pontificie mass — the mass for the election of a pope — inside St. Peter's Basilica, joined by voting cardinals.
Sodano, in his homily, issued an appeal for church unity, aimed squarely at the cardinals heading into a papal election that has no clear front-runner.
"Each of us is therefore called to co-operate with the Successor of Peter, the visible foundation of such an ecclesial unity," Sodano said.
There was applause when Sodano mentioned the "beloved and venerated" Pope Benedict XVI, whose retirement last month set in motion the events of the conclave.
Before the conclave, cardinals met 10 times to discuss the decision and issues the church is facing. Although the meetings are held behind closed doors, Vatican spokesman Rev. Federico Lombardi revealed the cardinals debated their expectations for the next pope and what his role should be.
Decision unlikely on first vote
While it's possible for a new pope to be determined by the first vote, it is highly unlikely. For a winner to be declared, he must receive two-thirds of the vote — 77 votes in total.
If more ballots are required, the cardinals will hold twice-daily secret voting sessions starting Wednesday in the chapel until Benedict XVI's successor is chosen.
When they are not in the chapel, the cardinals will remain within Vatican walls, staying at Casa St. Martha, a hotel that was built while John Paul II was pope. The cardinals will eat and sleep at the hotel, isolated from the outside world for the duration of the conclave.
Anyone interacting with the cardinals during the conclave — such as doctors, confessors, maids or bus drivers — swore an oath of secrecy Tuesday. If they break the oath, they will face ex-communication by the church.
No clear front-runner
It's not clear how long the conclave will take. John Paul II was elected after a two-day conclave. Benedict was elected after two days, and four ballots.
A Swiss Guard watches during the Pro Eligendo Romano Pontefice mass in St. Peter's Basilica at the Vatican on Tuesday. (Stefano Rellandini/Reuters ) Once the 115 cardinals — all under the age of 80 — have made their decision, the selected cardinal will be asked whether or not he accepts the position. More than one cardinal has previously refused the papacy, though not in recent history. If he accepts, he immediately becomes pope and must select a new name.
A puff of white smoke will emerge from the Sistine Chapel as the ballots are burned, and bells will ring to indicate that a new pope has been chosen. If the vote does not result in the selection of a new pope, the smoke from the chapel will be black.
As of late Monday, there appeared to be no clear leading candidate who might be chosen to lead the world's 1.2 billion Catholics, but many different names have been floated as people try to determine who will be selected.
Canada's Cardinal Marc Ouellet is viewed by many to be among the leading contenders. Several other non-European candidates, including Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer, 63, of Brazil and Cardinal Peter Turkson, 64, of Ghana, have also been mentioned as possible contenders for a job that has never been held by a non-European.
"The debate will be about priorities, and what the most urgent issues are," Vatican analyst David Perlich told CBC News Network on Monday as final preparations for the conclave were underway.
Perlich said there are about 10 men who stand a "really good opportunity" of being elected, but he noted that there have been surprises in the past, including Karol Józef Wojtyła, who was elected in 1978 and served as Pope John Paul II until he died until 2005.
Father Terence Fay, of the University of Toronto School of Theology, said the cardinals will be looking for someone who they believe has the "charism," or spiritual grace, to carry the burden of the papacy.
Papal historian Michael Walsh said discussions among the cardinals about who should be elected pope take place outside of the Sistine Chapel, at their hotel and over meals.
"The cardinals may have to do a bit of horse-trading … before somebody can muster the two-thirds majority [required to be elected pope]," he told CBC News, speaking from London.
Dias said he he was excited by the possibility that the next pope could be a non-European. He said that is a "real possibility," as many of the cardinals viewed as the leading contenders are not from Europe.
"I think that is pretty exciting for the church," he told CBC's Suhanna Meharchand.
The direction the new pope will give the church, which has recently been plagued with multiple scandals, will be important. Over the past few years, reports of sexual abuse by senior clergy have emerged, Vatican finances have been under scrutiny, and sensitive Vatican documents were leaked, raising questions about the church's ability to thrive in the digital age.
The current conclave comes after Benedict retired in late February, the first pope to do so in nearly 600 years.
Benedict, who was elected pope in 2005, has promised "unconditional reverence" and obedience to the new pope as he lives out his retirement at a monastery within the Vatican.
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